[DUG] Future of us Delphi programmer in New Zealand?

[Paul Heinz]

Hi guys. 

> I think Kyley is spot on. Unless there are some new stories 
> of companies starting new Delphi projects, from what I can tell 
> Delphi has been on the decline for a long time.

<RANT>

Personally, I think this is all somewhat cyclical and more about
underlying development 'fashion trends' than Delphi per se. 

Where I think Delphi has always been strongest is Win32 desktop
application development, particularly for mass-market applications that
are happy to run on pre-existing Windows PC e.g. Win9x on through to
WinXP.

C# and .NET are only viable for niche market desktop applications.
Requiring 'ordinary mortals' running XP or earlier to download the
entire .NET runtime(s) plus patches just so they can run your 250K demo
application is a non-starter.

So it's fine if you're writing an in-house app where the IT team can
just mandate that everyone have the .NET runtime installed or you're
writing an application targeted at developers or technically literate
users (such as SourceGear Vault or Plastic SCM for example) who are
already like to have .NET (or Mono) installed.

Aside from all that, I think the underlying trend is that fewer new
mass-market desktop applications are being written right now. 

Currently, desktop applications are out of favour in that space. Web
applications and SaaS (or what I call 'software pretending to be a
service') are flavour of the month.

So we are making the pendulum swing back from unified application and
information standards back to having islands of incompatible application
user interfaces and data all running 'in the cloud' i.e. the centralised
server centric or mainframe era all over again. 

Yes, sure it's all HTML/XML/CSS/AJAX/REST/rubberchickens/etc. but every
web application has a different UI, different data schemas, different
backup rules. Using some frankenstein-esque modern mashup to base your
entire IT infrastructure on is hardly good risk management. 

Inherent complexity gets you every time. But the next development silver
bullet is lined up in the chamber to supposedly slay the werewolf of
complexity. Fred Brooks had it right in 'The Mythical Man Month'.

It was the frustration with trying to integrate wildly (or worse,
subtlely) incompatible centralised 'line of business' applications with
disparate user interfaces and data formats that lead to the desktop
'productivity application' boom in the first place.

There is a continuing pendulum swing back and forth between centralised
and de-centralised applications. The latest centralised fad is
supposedly going to save us all from complexity and entropy.

Take CRM for example - the only application category predicated on the
fact that most line of business apps have such horrible UIs (since
they're sold at management level based on reporting - who cares about
the users) that the coal face support and sales people refuse to use
them.

It's a bug! Albeit, a useability one but useability matters.

And since sales people have clout, they commissioned whole separate
applications that duplicate the sales side of the business apps inside a
friendly Outlook-esque UI but then have you tied up in knots trying to
reliably bidirectionally replicate all that back into the various line
of business applications.

A radical solution might be to design line of business applications
based on the crazy idea that the user and their experience actually
matters. The tool should serve the user, not the user babysit the tool.

Anyway, my point is that desktop applications will come back. They
always have. People are just like that. They like to have a sense of
control over their destiny (illusory thought it may be).  Having all
their data and their life being 'in the cloud' where you 'don't need to
worry' is just plain psychologically unsatisfying and unsettling.
TNSTAAFL.

</RANT>

What can I say, it's almost Friday..

Cheers,
  Paul.